In the universe of hedge funds including

We begin today a series of 5 tests whose goal is to apprehend that the crisis has already changed or is about to change for the finance industry, regulation, central banks and, finally, for the world order.

A Wall Street, they are already working on the business model of the future. "These remarks made by a French banker back in New York a few days ago were surprise. More than century-old houses are sinking body and property, others are nationalized in emergency, the interbank market is frozen and financial speculate on winning the post-crisis strategy! The approach may seem surreal universe in strong contraction. And yet. If they engage in this exercise, it is that the apocalypse is not for tomorrow. Because, if the funds paid and pay no doubt even in the months to come a heavy toll in the explosion of sub-prime, is not the financial in its industry together this crisis sank, but a way to exercise.

The image of the "golden boy" of Wall Street arrogant and unscrupulous, follower of the "casino banking", lived. It is a certainty. At least for some time. But, in the current maelstrom, the traditional banker, whose role is to support the economy by measuring its risk and in the "priçant" more than just never seemed also necessary. In what context this function be exercised once the crisis passed What will be its main vectors of growth With what prudential and regulatory constraints Difficult to answer these questions, then the ruins of the triumphant finance smoke yet. Some tracks are however beginning to emerge.

On the institutional side, sorting was done. After fourteen months of tumult, a model organization emerges: the universal bank. Through its portfolio of activities diversified (retail, finance and investment banking and asset management), it appears as the only to cross the large time periods and, incidentally, curb the appetite of the most voracious market bankers. "We have to get a victory in an old fight of seventy years", welcomed a French banker, referring to the disappearance of Wall Street investment banks, considered there is little further as the formula 1 of finance. Lehman Brothers plunged, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch have been absorbed, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley had to adopt the status of commercial banks to avoid the same fate. Tomorrow, the Wall Street bankers held at the same speed as the others.

Markets also, crisis operates a natural selection. In the universe of "hedge funds", including. Faced with very high volatility, the temporary ban sales short, bank failures and the claims of some of their clients, number of players, small or monoactivité, face serious difficulties. For this fledgling industry that thrived on the soil of easy money, the future is probably also to firms more diverse managing a larger asset base. The model exists. It is worn including by houses such as KKR and Blackstone.

But, in this universe happened suddenly grow unfettered a sudden contraction, key is that the post-crisis growth engines. The explosion of the subprime bubble blew the most dynamic pan of the activity. Between 2003 and 2008, real estate operations, since the sale of goods to the securitization of mortgages, have generated more than 2,000 billion commissions all kinds, according to the Internet Dealbroker site.

At the same time, the abundance of cheap capital gave way to a shortage making it much more expensive credit. And it is the economic equation of the sector, starting with the industry of investment funds (hedge fund, private equity...), which is upset.

Finally, finance as a whole will have to pay the addition of the current crisis. This will go no doubt through regulation and much stricter prudential constraints, limiting the development potential of certain trades. The creation of a clearing house for the dynamic credit derivatives market should be a part.

So far, levers of growth exist. The current crisis is not a repeat of 1929. If it will inevitably lead to an economic slowdown, it does not call into question the globalization of exchanges and substantive dynamism of the global economy. Even if they go idle for some time, companies will continue to be in need of more or less sophisticated financial services. In the treasures of the pension funds and of the emerging countries, they have not disappeared. Broken by the fall of the markets, they simply fled on products without risk (Government bonds for the most part). Once calm returned, they will have choice to focus on more remunerative investments, to serve the returns promised to their successors.

In these circumstances, more or less complex instruments offered by the financial industry to hedge monetary changes, rate, raw materials, or to ensure capital, will continue to be subject to strong demand. Best, innovation, so discredited today, remains a prerequisite to meet new needs.

At the same time, the industry can count on the return to grace of some trades past fashion. This is the case for example of the financing of businesses and individuals relegated to the rank of products of appeal because of the abundance of liquidity. With the scarcity of financial resource, these services will be again paid according to the risk taken.

Remains whether these activities will be sufficiently dynamic to restore the train of life of the bankers. Probably not. Collectively, the financial industry will not escape the contraction. But for each individual operator, this is not necessarily a drama. Because there are fewer guests around the table. In other words, competition will be less harsh and survivors will be able to dictate their conditions. "Customers from institutions badly flock at this time." "And they accept our conditions without eyebrows," explains a bit arrogant banker of the place. In these conditions, the size of the cake to share becomes less central.

At the time where policies and regulators are beginning to question the future of sector regulation and the mode of remuneration of its operators, the main challenge of the post-crisis may be to find a legal framework to avoid that new from giants of the crisis do abuse their position has become, in some cases, dominant.